As political analyst Mario Sergio Lima, a senior Brazil analyst at consultancy Medley Advisors, commented in an interview with The Brazilian Report, the election opposing President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Lula will ultimately be a “battle of rejections” — with voters more driven to block the candidate they oppose rather than going for their preferred pick.
Per a new poll published on Tuesday, one in four Brazilians could switch their vote if it means achieving that goal without the need for a runoff election. Among these voters, almost half say they would change their pick to deny Mr. Bolsonaro a second term, with only 21 percent saying they would do so to block Lula.
According to most polls, Lula leads the race in the low-to-mid-40s range, with Mr. Bolsonaro in the low 30s. The gap between them is narrowing as of late, but a Lula first-round win — while extremely unlikely — still remains in the realm of possibility.